Switch 2 ‘likely to be iteration rather than revolution’, predicts analyst

Nintendo’s Switch successor will launch this year and will likely be an iteration of the current hardware design, rather than a revolution.

That’s according to Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of Tokyo-based game industry consultancy Kantan Games, who contributed his forecast for 2024 in GamesIndustry.biz’s annual analysts predictions feature.

Although the company is yet to comment publicly, Nintendo’s next-generation console is widely expected to launch this year, after VGC reported that development kits are in the hands of developers as the platform holder prepares its plans.

According to Kantan Games’ Toto, the console could launch at $400 – $100 higher than the Switch launched at – and there’s a chance its games could adopt the $70 pricing of PS5 and Xbox Series X.

“The time is finally here for a Switch successor, even though I can say a ‘Pro’ model actually did exist and certain developers were already working with the dev kit,” Toto wrote. “I believe the next hardware will drop [in 2024] for $400. There is a high chance that games will cost more, too: $70.”

According to the industry consultant, Nintendo’s next console will again have portable functionality, as VGC reported last year.

“The next system is also likely to be an iteration rather than a revolution. Nintendo might add some bells and whistles to the device, but it will be similar to the current Switch.

“And because there is Pokémon, and Pokémon is associated with handheld gaming, there is no way on earth Nintendo will drop the portability feature for their next big thing.”

Nintendo president Shuntaro Furukawa declined to comment on plans for the company’s next console in November, as it announced Switch had cleared 132.46 million lifetime sales.

Despite unusually strong performance for a console entering its seventh year on the market, Switch hardware sales are clearly in decline, especially in the major markets outside of Japan.

In Nintendo’s last fiscal year, Switch sales declined by 22% compared to the previous year, and if it reaches its current target of 15m for this year, that will represent a further decline of 16.5%.